Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Against Democracy

There are only two things wrong with democracy. They are:

  • Those who vote
  • Those they vote for

Those who vote

The average intelligence of the general population of every country is average. But don't let the word average fool you. It really means that on average, humanity's as thick as two short planks. When it comes to voting, the small percentage of intelligent people doesn't matter. Those who matter are the great unwashed. And this group has only a tenuous grip on reality. We all know the Greeks have been living beyond their means on borrowed money for years. When it finally caught up with them and they needed to curb their lifestyles and get their hands dirty and work, they demonstrated and had protest marches. They wanted to keep on living beyond their means on borrowed money forever and ever. How they saw that as possible, they didn't say.

When the French government recently wanted to introduce legislation to make French industry more competitive by giving greater power to employers, the French took to the streets. They demanded that their jobs stay highly paid, secure and with generous perks. They didn't say how they planned to be competitive with mostly Eastern countries where workers don't have it so well.

The whole democracy issue is best summarised by a quote attributed to Robert Heinlein; Once the monkeys learn they can vote themselves bananas, they'll never climb another tree. Benjamin Franklin said much the same; When the people find that they can vote themselves money that will herald the end of the republic. And this is the crux of the matter, the great unwashed will want what they want irrespective of whether what they want is reasonable and realistic. And they will vote for those promising them what they want.

In Australia, young people from all over the world come on extended holidays. They don't have much money, so they stay in modest accommodation known as backpacker lodges. They themselves are referred to as backpackers. Many of them take up menial work to supplement their funds, mostly things like fruit picking in season. Australians don't want to do this kind of work. As much of this work is on a cash basis, the government doesn't get what they regard as their fair share of this money. Just now, on TV, a politician, maybe the relevant minister, talked about financing government. Back-packers featured prominently. The government considered introducing a flat tax on them, but reconsidered as they thought it would discourage backpackers coming to Australia and doing really essential work and spending some money here. This politician bemoaned the fact that Australians won't take up this work, in which case these workers would be on the books and could be taxed. In addition, these people would then not rely on Centrelink to keep them in the pink and in booze with enough left over for the horses, the poker machines (pokies), and the many kinds of sports betting available in Australia. This politician said the government is deliberating how they can change things so that Australians will take up these jobs.

Of course, laws could be changed to implement Paul's dictum : The one who is unwilling to work shall not eat. But that will ensure that whichever party is in opposition will promise to undo these changes if they come into power. The opposition will then be elected at the next election as sure as politicians have very generous perks. It is, therefore, safe to say that Australians won't take up this lowly paid, hard work. Legalise compulsory higher wages for this work and the products generated won't be competitive in the world markets.

Working mothers of newborns in Australia can get paid parental leave amounting to AUD672.60 per week before tax for a maximum of 18 weeks. 18 Weeks amount to four months. Not only can new mothers get paid parental leave, there is also a Dad and Partner paid parental leave for the same amount, but only for two weeks. Needless to say, there is a clamour to make these perks even more generous.

And that's not all, Domestic Violence Leave is also much in play in Australia. In fact, the perpetrators may be entitled to paid domestic violence leave . This will surely make Australia more competitive in the world's markets and ensure jobs into the future.

In Australia, like in much of the West, manufacturing is on the ropes. The export of manufacturing jobs to Eastern countries is going strong, however. It's widely accepted that the car manufacturing industry will go. All the remaining three big manufacturers will close in either 2016 or 2017. In fact, the Ford factory closed on Friday the 7th of October 2016. The story is very similar to the British Motor Industry. Jaguar is owned by the Indian Car Manufacturer, Tata, Rolls-Royce Motor Cars Limited is owned by BMW, Austin is gone, Morris is gone, and the list goes on and on. Recently, a contract for new railway carriages for the NSW railways went to South Korea, despite the fact that there is a concern that manufactures rolling stock in Newcastle, NSW. The relevant government said that the South Korean bid was 25% lower and that there are no quality concerns. In fact, as regards to quality... Thank the unions, thank democracy. For a while, the workers had it very good. But they were, as the great unwashed always is, unable to see what was real and sustainable and what was only a socialist dream leading to a rude awakening. As there was so little brain to wash, brainwashing them was an easy job. Pie in the sky seemed so real.

The only qualification needed to vote is to have reached the voting age. As if age brings intelligence.

When all is said and done, a true democracy where the great masses get their wishes is nothing but mob rule.

Those getting the votes

Before an aspirant politician can become a fully fledged politician, he or she must get enough votes to be elected. That means he or she must be able to convince enough of the great unwashed to vote for him. That means, first of all, he must maneuver himself into a position to become a candidate for the party with the best chance of winning his constituency. Of course, he may stand as an independent, but that greatly diminishes his chances of getting elected. All that is needed depends on appearances. The ability to get elected has nothing to do with the ability to manage a country or part thereof. A minister of a portfolio needs no knowledge of his portfolio. A hairdresser is often better qualified for her job than a minister of a portfolio for his portfolio. The people attracted to politics are by nature snake oil salesmen and women - all they need to do is to charm and smooth talk enough people to support them when they need that support. They must know how to lead the fickle great unwashed by its collective dirty snout. The ones who can see through them don't matter. There are too few of those.

Democracy is not to be found in any field needing knowledge. How would you feel if the surgeon going to operate on you were elected by the great unwashed from among any group of candidates who thought they'd like the pay of a surgeon? Say the pilot of the plane in which you're going to fly were also elected. And the engineers who designed and supervised the building of the huge bridge that's supposed to carry hundreds of thousands of cars a day had been elected. How come it's fine that those at the head of a country need no knowledge? All they need is enough of the great unwashed to vote for them. Does this make sense?

Being so dependent on the fickle masses makes a politician vulnerable. Anybody who can deliver on anything that can sway the great unwashed will have much influence with a politician. Enter the lobbyists who control too few votes to make a difference at election time but have enough money which a cunning politician can use to sway votes his way.

A few months ago, the NSW state government banned dog racing when it was discovered that there was much animal cruelty involved in it. Of course, there was the usual outcry by those involved in this shady (gambling) industry. Just today (11 October 2016), TV news reported that the NSW government was going to reverse this ban. I immediately wondered what the gambling bosses did to engineer the reversing of this ban. Of course, we can expect no in depth reporting on what happened behind the scenes. There will be the usual claptrap providing a reason - stepped up supervision, promises to eradicate cruelty from the industry, etc. But what will be offered won't be the real reason. The nature of elected government officials is such that by far the majority of people in whichever country expect them to behave dishonestly. It is no surprise therefore that people are sceptical in a situation such as this.

By far the majority of elected officials desperately want to keep their jobs. They want to remain where the pickings are rich and the pasture is lush. To succeed in this, they must convince the voting cattle to give them enough votes come election time. And for the voting cattle, being who they are, it's all about appearances. And the politicians, being who they are, appearances is the one thing about which they are very good. Reality takes a back seat.

Politicians will do whatever is needed to stay in the pound seats - collude with whoever can turn the odds their way, promise the voting cattle whatever is needed to make them vote for the party or politician concerned, even if it will bankrupt the country or kill off industry. Ask the Greeks and the English.

What else?

Most people will now ask, what is better than democracy? There is something, a country with a clear constitution and with laws flowing from that constitution. The biggest part of this constitution will be the same for all countries as people are people. There will be parts addressing the particular circumstances of the individual countries. This constitution should address everything, like the best way the particular country can be economically viable, given its strenghts and weaknesses. The constitution should embody what is best for the country and the people, not what the hoi polloi wants.

The above will never happen, though. It will prevent predators, like gambling bosses, booze barons, drug pushers, confidence tricksters and whore masters preying on the all too prevalent simple minded. And the simple minded will always be there in great numbers and those eager to prey on them, too. So, don't hold your breath. This is a world of predators and prey, with the blessing of the government of whichever country you are in.

Sunday, April 3, 2016

Scientists and Logic

It's to be expected that your average person should make logical mistakes in his arguments. It's even to be expected that those with training in the arts, humanities, philosophy, theology and other non-scientific disciplines should make mistakes in logic. But I'm disappointed to see people with scientific training make mistakes in logic. And they do. Much more often than I would like to see. It's like seeing a man parking badly - they're letting the side down.

Still, it seems they are just like everybody else; if something is in line with what they believe, they demand little or no evidence before accepting it. But if it is in any way contrary to what they believe nothing but absolute mathematically certain evidence will do. And in most cases not even that.

Stephen Hawking said: "on the face of it, life does seem to be too unlikely to be just a coincidence." Then he goes on, trying to find ways to show that what he just said is not true, after all. He invokes parallel universes to get past the astronomical odds against 'just by chance.' There is absolutely no evidence supporting parallel universes. The astronomical odds are a certainty. Stephen Hawking should know one cannot invoke speculation as evidence to change a factual reality. One can also not invoke what amounts to magic - here we are, so it must have happened. Is Stephen Hawking so committed to atheism that he abandons logic to defend it? What a disappointment.

I'm reading a book called Confessions of a Greenpeace Dropout by Patrick Moore. Patrick Moore has a PhD in environmental science. While attending a conference in Nairobi, he had a Damascus Road experience. He saw that Greenpeace was a movement more in line with ideals and convictions than reality. In fact, he went over to the other side to such an extent that he even doubts that man-made green-house gases are in any way responsible for the documented increase in global temperatures. He does not doubt the increase in green-house gases and the global heating up, just the connection between the two. He uses the analogy of the correlation between increased ice-cream consumption and an increase in shark attacks on humans. He does mention that there is no known direct connection between ice-cream consumption and shark attacks, which is of course true. There is no evidence that either humans having eaten ice-cream or ice-cream itself attracts sharks. However, Patrick Moore should know this is not an apt analogy to use to illustrate the connection between an increase of hot house gases and an increased global temperature - it is well known that hot house gases prevent heat from being lost. Therefore, it can be said with certainty that the increase in hot house gases is at least to some extent responsible for the increased global temperature. There may be other candidates also responsible for this, like sun spots. But in the absence of other candidates as clearly related to a temperature increase as hot house gases, it is justified to declare hot house gases the number one contender for the lion's share of the responsibility for the increased global temperature. This is not rocket science. I cannot see why Patrick Moore and others can't see this.

Patrick Moore is also heavily into atheism and evolution. Nevertheless, he says he bases his realities on science. In his own words: "The real strength of science is that it is based on two things: observable facts that can be repeated and logic." Then he goes on to say, not on the same page, of course, that whales come from hippopotamus-like animals that swam down rivers, ended up in the oceans and became whales. In the light of the total absence of any evidence for this, this qualifies as complete nonsense. Where are the "observable facts that can be repeated" that is his requirement for anything to be established as a fact? Or is such nonsense acceptable to him because it supports evolution? One should be consistent.

As for evolution, the starting point of evolution is the development of life purely by chance. If this cannot happen, evolution does not even get out of the starting blocks. The Internet is full of discussions about this. Everybody agrees that the chance of life coming about by random chance is less than one out of a figure bigger than the number of all the atoms in the Universe. Evolutionists have a few ways they try to get past that, among those life seeded from outer space (but how did life get there?) or the claim that the process wasn't really random. Exactly what it was, they don't say. The only way one can defeat such overwhelming odds is a brute force attack - try all combinations. But a brute force attack is not a random process. One should try one combination only once. Even if that is possible through random means, the numbers still are too large. And it isn't. So, purely mathematically speaking, the probability of life coming to be by random means runs up against insurmountable odds. So, mathematically speaking it is impossible that life can come about by itself by random means. This is a fact. There are no "observable facts that can be repeated" to show how life can come about by itself. To be consistent, anyone who claims to go only by science and logic should admit that evolution is a mathematical impossibility. As life developing by itself by random processes is a mathematical impossibility, it is a mathematical necessity that there should be something or someone behind the development of life. Again, this is not rocket science.

It is disappointing that people with scientific training make easily avoidable, logical mistakes. What is even more disappointing is that they so often talk absolute nonsense. This, unfortunately, is not as rare as it should be. Let me stress that no amount of speculation can prevent anything from being nonsense.